Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? — live odds

Part of Richest person on December 31, 2026?· see all 10 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?" is trading at a 96% implied probability, with YES at 96¢ and NO at 4¢. $197K has changed hands so far, $1 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this culture market in real time.

96%

implied probability

YES 96¢NO 4¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

0¢

24h change

24h volume

$197K

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±49¢ swing band
1d ago
Odds swing
3¢ → 98¢ (+95.2¢ in 15 min)
1d ago
High volatility
±40.6¢ swing band
1d ago
Odds swing
3¢ → 98¢ (+95.2¢ in 15 min)
1d ago
High volatility
±40.6¢ swing band
1d ago
High volatility
±26.7¢ swing band
1d ago
Odds swing
96¢ → 3¢ (-93¢ in 15 min)
1d ago
conviction signal
1d ago
High volatility
±23¢ swing band
64d ago
High volatility
±25.7¢ swing band
64d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.