Event odds table
TIME Person of the Year 2026 — live odds
17 outcomes$244K traded$18K · 24hresolves by December 31, 2026
Live TIME Person of the Year 2026 odds: Zohran Mamdani leads the field at 24% implied probability, ahead of James Talarico (15%) and Pope Leo XIV (11%). All 17 outcome markets are ranked below by the odds real money is pricing, with $244K traded ($18K in the last 24 hours) and the field resolving by December 31, 2026. Prices refresh every few minutes as trades land.
The market's call
Zohran Mamdani 24%
implied probability (24¢ YES) — the most-likely outcome of 17
1Zohran Mamdani
24%24¢ · $5K 24h2James Talarico
15%14¢ · $1K 24h3Pope Leo XIV
11%11¢ · $648 24h4Donald Trump
10%10¢ · $2K 24h5Dario Amodei
9%9¢ · — 24h6Artificial Intelligence
7%7¢ · $99 24h7Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
4%4¢ · $1K 24h8Alysa Liu
2%2¢ · — 24h9Marco Rubio
—— · $820 24h10Mark Carney
—— · $1K 24h11Ali G
—— · — 24h12Benjamin Netanyahu
—— · $3K 24h13Elon Musk
—— · — 24h14Bernie Sanders
—— · — 24h15Abdul El-Sayed
—— · $639 24h16Christina Koch
—— · $1K 24h17Bad Bunny
—— · $839 24h
About this event
- Which outcome is favored for TIME Person of the Year 2026?
- The market currently favors Zohran Mamdani at 24% implied probability (YES trading at 24¢).
- How much has been traded on TIME Person of the Year 2026?
- $244K has been traded across 17 outcome markets, $18K of it in the last 24 hours.
- When do these markets resolve?
- The earliest outcome market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.
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