Event odds table
Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal? — live odds
15 outcomes$1.5M traded$4K · 24hresolves by August 1, 2026
1Recep Tayyip Erdogan
71%71¢ · — 24h2Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
50%50¢ · — 24h3Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
2%2¢ · $3K 24h4Mohammed bin Salman
2%2¢ · — 24h5Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa
2%2¢ · — 24h6Steve Witkoff
1%1¢ · — 24h7Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan
1%1¢ · — 24h8Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
1%1¢ · — 24h9Pete Hegseth
1%1¢ · $37 24h10Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah
1%1¢ · — 24h11Benjamin Netanyahu
1%1¢ · $2 24h12Marco Rubio
1%1¢ · $20 24h13King Abdullah II
1%1¢ · — 24h14Mojtaba Khamenei
1%1¢ · $68 24h15Abbas Araghchi
1%1¢ · $14 24h
About this event
- Which outcome is favored for Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal??
- The market currently favors "Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?" at 71% implied probability (YES trading at 71¢).
- How much has been traded on Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal??
- $1.5M has been traded across 15 outcome markets, $4K of it in the last 24 hours.
- When do these markets resolve?
- The earliest outcome market is scheduled to resolve by August 1, 2026.
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