UFC Fight Night: Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite (Women's Flyweight, Prelims) — final odds

This market has ended · October 11, 2026Final price 50¢ YES — the market gave this a 50% implied probability.

"UFC Fight Night: Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)" resolved on October 11, 2026 at a final price of 50¢ YES — a 50% implied probability — after $851K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

50%

implied probability

YES 50¢NO 50¢

recent price

—

24h change

$832K

24h volume

$851K

total volume

Oct 11, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Volume spike
$515 traded — 40.9× the average
3d ago
Volume spike
$39 traded — 3.1× the average
3d ago
Volume spike
$60 traded — 4.8× the average
3d ago
Volume spike
$1,000 traded — 79.4× the average
3d ago
Spread blowout
spread 0.11¢ vs 0.0146¢ normal
3d ago
Volume spike
$520 traded — 41.3× the average
3d ago
Volume spike
$92 traded — 7.3× the average
3d ago
High volatility
±36.6¢ swing band
3d ago
Spread blowout
spread 0.09¢ vs 0.01¢ normal
3d ago
Volume spike
$110,039 traded — 11174.3× the average
3d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Melissa Gatto" if Melissa Gatto is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ernesta Kareckaite at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, scheduled for October 10, 2026. It will resolve to "Ernesta Kareckaite" if Ernesta Kareckaite is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 24, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Quick answers

How did "UFC Fight Night: Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)" resolve?

This market ended on October 11, 2026 with a final traded price of 50¢ YES (50% implied probability).

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 50¢ — an implied probability of 50%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.