Will Aaron Judge hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? live odds

35%

implied probability

YES 35¢NO 66¢

recent price

+32¢ over the window

+32¢

24h change

24h volume

$4K

total volume

Oct 11, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • complete set arb

    sum: 0.863 · edge: 0.127

    30d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 0.867 · edge: 0.123

    30d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 0.88 · edge: 0.11

    30d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 0.841 · edge: 0.149

    31d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 0.844 · edge: 0.146

    31d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 0.812 · edge: 0.178

    31d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 0.809 · edge: 0.181

    31d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 0.819 · edge: 0.171

    31d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 0.831 · edge: 0.159

    31d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 0.85 · edge: 0.14

    31d ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Will Aaron Judge hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?"?

The market currently prices YES at 35¢ and NO at 66¢, an implied probability of 35% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by October 11, 2026.

How much has been traded on this market?

$4K has been traded in total, — of it in the last 24 hours.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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