Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? — live odds
82%
implied probability
recent price
+49¢ over the window
+49¢
24h change
$115K
24h volume
$496K
total volume
Oct 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 14m ago
High volatility
±9.6¢ swing band
- 14m ago
Odds swing
0¢ → 53¢ (+52.7¢ in 15 min)
- 38m ago
Volume spike
$500 traded — 7× the average
- 1h ago
High volatility
±14.4¢ swing band
- 1h ago
Odds swing
0¢ → 82¢ (+81.7¢ in 15 min)
- 1h ago
Volume spike
$240 traded — 3.3× the average
- 2h ago
Odds swing
70¢ → 0¢ (-69.8¢ in 15 min)
- 2h ago
High volatility
±10.1¢ swing band
- 2h ago
Odds swing
0¢ → 60¢ (+59.8¢ in 15 min)
- 2h ago
High volatility
±11.8¢ swing band
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?"?
The market currently prices YES at 82¢ and NO at 18¢, an implied probability of 82% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by October 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$496K has been traded in total, $115K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
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