Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? live odds

16%

implied probability

YES 16¢NO 84¢

recent price

+4¢ over the window

+4¢

24h change

24h volume

$8K

total volume

Sep 28, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • complete set arb

    sum: 0.581 · edge: 0.409

    22d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 0.587 · edge: 0.403

    22d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 0.538 · edge: 0.452

    23d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 0.546 · edge: 0.444

    24d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 0.542 · edge: 0.448

    25d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 0.543 · edge: 0.447

    25d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 0.581 · edge: 0.409

    27d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 0.966 · edge: 0.024

    28d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 0.419 · edge: 0.571

    30d ago
  • complete set arb

    sum: 0.4 · edge: 0.59

    30d ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the pitcher who records the lowest earned run average among qualified pitchers during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the pitcher that records more innings pitched during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that records more strikeouts during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that walked fewer batters during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the pitcher whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?"?

The market currently prices YES at 16¢ and NO at 84¢, an implied probability of 16% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by September 28, 2026.

How much has been traded on this market?

$8K has been traded in total, — of it in the last 24 hours.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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