Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? — live odds

Part of Highest grossing movie in 2026?· see all 14 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?" is trading at a 94% implied probability, with YES at 94¢ and NO at 6¢. $637K has changed hands so far, $321 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this culture market in real time.

94%

implied probability

YES 94¢NO 6¢

recent price

-1¢ over the window

-1¢

24h change

$321

24h volume

$637K

total volume

Dec 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±27.2¢ swing band
45m ago
Volume spike
$7 traded — 23.8× the average
1h ago
Volume spike
$2 traded — 6.4× the average
4h ago
High volatility
±17.6¢ swing band
4h ago
Odds swing
95¢ → 30¢ (-65¢ in 15 min)
4h ago
Odds swing
30¢ → 95¢ (+65¢ in 15 min)
5h ago
Volume spike
$7 traded — 22.7× the average
5h ago
Volume spike
$7 traded — 22.8× the average
5h ago
Odds swing
95¢ → 30¢ (-65¢ in 15 min)
5h ago
High volatility
±18.6¢ swing band
6h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.