Which outcome is favored for Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...??

The market currently favors December 31 at 17% implied probability (YES trading at 17¢).

How much has been traded on Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...??

$3.4M has been traded across 3 outcome markets, $52K of it in the last 24 hours.

When do these markets resolve?

The earliest outcome market is scheduled to resolve by November 1, 2026.

Event odds table

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? — live odds

3 outcomes$3.4M traded$52K · 24hresolves by November 1, 2026

Live Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? odds: December 31 leads the field at 17% implied probability, ahead of November 30 (9%) and October 31 (2%). All 3 outcome markets are ranked below by the odds real money is pricing, with $3.4M traded ($52K in the last 24 hours) and the field resolving by November 1, 2026. Prices refresh every few minutes as trades land.

The market's call

December 31 17%

implied probability (17¢ YES) — the most-likely outcome of 3

Full market details →

1December 31

17%17¢ · $8K 24h 2November 30

9%9¢ · $2K 24h 3October 31

2%2¢ · $43K 24h

About this event

Which outcome is favored for Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...??: The market currently favors December 31 at 17% implied probability (YES trading at 17¢).
How much has been traded on Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...??: $3.4M has been traded across 3 outcome markets, $52K of it in the last 24 hours.
When do these markets resolve?: The earliest outcome market is scheduled to resolve by November 1, 2026.

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