Which outcome is favored for Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...??

The market currently favors December 31 at 17% implied probability (YES trading at 17¢).

How much has been traded on Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...??

$3.5M has been traded across 4 outcome markets, $23K of it in the last 24 hours.

When do these markets resolve?

The earliest outcome market is scheduled to resolve by September 16, 2026.

Event odds table

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? — live odds

4 outcomes$3.5M traded$23K · 24hresolves by September 16, 2026

Live Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? odds: December 31 leads the field at 17% implied probability, ahead of October 31 (10%) and September 30 (3%). All 4 outcome markets are ranked below by the odds real money is pricing, with $3.5M traded ($23K in the last 24 hours) and the field resolving by September 16, 2026. Prices refresh every few minutes as trades land.

The market's call

December 31 17%

implied probability (17¢ YES) — the most-likely outcome of 4

Full market details →

1December 31

17%17¢ · $5K 24h 2October 31

10%10¢ · $3K 24h 3September 30

3%3¢ · $14K 24h 4September 15

1%1¢ · $1K 24h

About this event

Which outcome is favored for Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...??: The market currently favors December 31 at 17% implied probability (YES trading at 17¢).
How much has been traded on Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...??: $3.5M has been traded across 4 outcome markets, $23K of it in the last 24 hours.
When do these markets resolve?: The earliest outcome market is scheduled to resolve by September 16, 2026.

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