Event odds table
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory — live odds
Live Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory odds: Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? leads the field at 43% implied probability, ahead of Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? (31%) and Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? (19%). All 8 outcome markets are ranked below by the odds real money is pricing, with $1.4M traded ($318K in the last 24 hours) and the field resolving by October 26, 2026. Prices refresh every few minutes as trades land.
The market's call
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? 43%
implied probability (43¢ YES) — the most-likely outcome of 8
About this event
- Which outcome is favored for Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory?
- The market currently favors Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? at 43% implied probability (YES trading at 43¢).
- How much has been traded on Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory?
- $1.4M has been traded across 8 outcome markets, $318K of it in the last 24 hours.
- When do these markets resolve?
- The earliest outcome market is scheduled to resolve by October 26, 2026.
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