Event odds table
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026? — live odds
6 outcomes$1.2M traded$270 · 24hresolves by December 31, 2026
1exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions
72%72¢ · — 24h2exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption
21%21¢ · — 24h3exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions
4%4¢ · $270 24h4exactly 4 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions
1%1¢ · — 24h5exactly 3 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions
1%1¢ · — 24h65 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions
0%0¢ · — 24h
About this event
- Which outcome is favored for How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026??
- The market currently favors "Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?" at 72% implied probability (YES trading at 72¢).
- How much has been traded on How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026??
- $1.2M has been traded across 6 outcome markets, $270 of it in the last 24 hours.
- When do these markets resolve?
- The earliest outcome market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.
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