Which outcome is favored for How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026??

The market currently favors exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions at 60% implied probability (YES trading at 60¢).

How much has been traded on How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026??

$1.2M has been traded across 6 outcome markets, $5 of it in the last 24 hours.

When do these markets resolve?

The earliest outcome market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.

Event odds table

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026? — live odds

6 outcomes$1.2M traded$5 · 24hresolves by January 1, 2027

Live How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026? odds: exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions leads the field at 60% implied probability, ahead of exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption (20%) and exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions (4%). All 6 outcome markets are ranked below by the odds real money is pricing, with $1.2M traded ($5 in the last 24 hours) and the field resolving by January 1, 2027. Prices refresh every few minutes as trades land.

The market's call

exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions 60%

implied probability (60¢ YES) — the most-likely outcome of 6

Full market details →

1exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions

60%60¢ · — 24h 2exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption

20%20¢ · — 24h 3exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions

4%4¢ · $1 24h 4exactly 3 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions

1%1¢ · — 24h 55 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions

1%1¢ · — 24h 6exactly 4 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions

1%1¢ · $4 24h

About this event

Which outcome is favored for How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026??: The market currently favors exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions at 60% implied probability (YES trading at 60¢).
How much has been traded on How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026??: $1.2M has been traded across 6 outcome markets, $5 of it in the last 24 hours.
When do these markets resolve?: The earliest outcome market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.

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