Which outcome is favored for Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...??

The market currently favors December 31 at 8% implied probability (YES trading at 8¢).

How much has been traded on Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...??

$5.7M has been traded across 3 outcome markets, $90K of it in the last 24 hours.

When do these markets resolve?

The earliest outcome market is scheduled to resolve by September 1, 2026.

Event odds table

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? — live odds

3 outcomes$5.7M traded$90K · 24hresolves by September 1, 2026

Live Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? odds: December 31 leads the field at 8% implied probability, ahead of September 30 (3%) and August 31 (1%). All 3 outcome markets are ranked below by the odds real money is pricing, with $5.7M traded ($90K in the last 24 hours) and the field resolving by September 1, 2026. Prices refresh every few minutes as trades land.

The market's call

December 31 8%

implied probability (8¢ YES) — the most-likely outcome of 3

Full market details →

1December 31

8%8¢ · $804 24h 2September 30

3%3¢ · $36K 24h 3August 31

1%1¢ · $53K 24h

About this event

Which outcome is favored for Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...??: The market currently favors December 31 at 8% implied probability (YES trading at 8¢).
How much has been traded on Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...??: $5.7M has been traded across 3 outcome markets, $90K of it in the last 24 hours.
When do these markets resolve?: The earliest outcome market is scheduled to resolve by September 1, 2026.

Get alerts on every outcome

PolyWatch watches all 3 outcome markets 24/7 and pushes whale trades, odds swings and volume spikes the moment they land. Free on iOS and Android.