Event odds table
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? — live odds
15 outcomes$5.6M traded$69K · 24hresolves by November 1, 2026
Live Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? odds: December 31, 2027 leads the field at 68% implied probability, ahead of October 31, 2027 (63%) and June 30, 2027 (50%). All 15 outcome markets are ranked below by the odds real money is pricing, with $5.6M traded ($69K in the last 24 hours) and the field resolving by November 1, 2026. Prices refresh every few minutes as trades land.
The market's call
December 31, 2027 68%
implied probability (68¢ YES) — the most-likely outcome of 15
1December 31, 2027
68%68¢ · $67 24h2October 31, 2027
63%63¢ · $20 24h3June 30, 2027
50%50¢ · $250 24h4March 31, 2027
32%32¢ · $377 24h5January 31, 2027
22%22¢ · $8K 24h6December 31, 2026
15%14¢ · $21K 24h7November 30, 2026
9%9¢ · $1K 24h8October 31, 2026
3%3¢ · $37K 24h9February 28, 2027
—— · $221 24h10May 31, 2027
—— · $245 24h11April 30, 2027
—— · — 24h12November 30, 2027
—— · $379 24h13July 31, 2027
—— · $20 24h14September 30, 2027
—— · $16 24h15August 31, 2027
—— · — 24h
About this event
- Which outcome is favored for Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...??
- The market currently favors December 31, 2027 at 68% implied probability (YES trading at 68¢).
- How much has been traded on Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...??
- $5.6M has been traded across 15 outcome markets, $69K of it in the last 24 hours.
- When do these markets resolve?
- The earliest outcome market is scheduled to resolve by November 1, 2026.
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