Which outcome is favored for US-Iran ceasefire continues through...??

This market is a threshold ladder rather than a single-winner race; its 50/50 line sits at October 31 (57% implied). All 6 thresholds are ranked in the table below.

How much has been traded on US-Iran ceasefire continues through...??

$1.8M has been traded across 6 outcome markets, $559K of it in the last 24 hours.

When do these markets resolve?

The earliest outcome market is scheduled to resolve by August 22, 2026.

Event odds table

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? — live odds

6 outcomes$1.8M traded$559K · 24hresolves by August 22, 2026

Live US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? odds: the market's 50/50 line sits at October 31 (57% implied), with all 6 thresholds ranked below by probability and $1.8M traded, resolving by August 22, 2026. Prices refresh every few minutes as trades land.

The market's 50/50 line

October 31 57%

implied — the threshold the market prices closest to even, across 6 levels

Full market details →

1August 22

100%100¢ · $202K 24h 2August 25

98%98¢ · $112K 24h 3August 31

91%91¢ · $88K 24h 4September 15

78%78¢ · $71K 24h 5September 30

67%67¢ · $68K 24h 6October 31

57%56¢ · $19K 24h

About this event

Which outcome is favored for US-Iran ceasefire continues through...??: This market is a threshold ladder rather than a single-winner race; its 50/50 line sits at October 31 (57% implied). All 6 thresholds are ranked in the table below.
How much has been traded on US-Iran ceasefire continues through...??: $1.8M has been traded across 6 outcome markets, $559K of it in the last 24 hours.
When do these markets resolve?: The earliest outcome market is scheduled to resolve by August 22, 2026.

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