Event odds table
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? — live odds
5 outcomes$5.3M traded$770K · 24hresolves by October 16, 2026
Live US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? odds: the market's 50/50 line sits at November 30 (46% implied), with all 5 thresholds ranked below by probability and $5.3M traded, resolving by October 16, 2026. Prices refresh every few minutes as trades land.
The market's 50/50 line
November 30 46%
implied — the threshold the market prices closest to even, across 5 levels
1October 15
97%97¢ · $404K 24h2October 31
81%81¢ · $285K 24h3November 15
61%61¢ · $47K 24h4November 30
46%46¢ · $28K 24h5December 31
36%36¢ · $6K 24h
About this event
- Which outcome is favored for US-Iran ceasefire continues through...??
- This market is a threshold ladder rather than a single-winner race; its 50/50 line sits at November 30 (46% implied). All 5 thresholds are ranked in the table below.
- How much has been traded on US-Iran ceasefire continues through...??
- $5.3M has been traded across 5 outcome markets, $770K of it in the last 24 hours.
- When do these markets resolve?
- The earliest outcome market is scheduled to resolve by October 16, 2026.
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