Event odds table
US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...? — live odds
5 outcomes$785K traded$377K · 24hresolves by November 7, 2026
Live US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...? odds: the market's 50/50 line sits at November 30 (40% implied), with all 5 thresholds ranked below by probability and $785K traded, resolving by November 7, 2026. Prices refresh every few minutes as trades land.
The market's 50/50 line
November 30 40%
implied — the threshold the market prices closest to even, across 5 levels
1November 6
96%96¢ · $91K 24h2November 8
84%84¢ · $110K 24h3November 15
62%62¢ · $107K 24h4November 30
40%40¢ · $52K 24h5December 31
29%28¢ · $18K 24h
About this event
- Which outcome is favored for US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...??
- This market is a threshold ladder rather than a single-winner race; its 50/50 line sits at November 30 (40% implied). All 5 thresholds are ranked in the table below.
- How much has been traded on US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...??
- $785K has been traded across 5 outcome markets, $377K of it in the last 24 hours.
- When do these markets resolve?
- The earliest outcome market is scheduled to resolve by November 7, 2026.
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