Event odds table

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? — live odds

100 outcomes$2.2M traded$2.0M · 24hresolves by November 3, 2026

Live Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? odds: lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats leads the field at 25% implied probability, ahead of win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas (14%) and win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas (14%). All 100 outcome markets are ranked below by the odds real money is pricing, with $2.2M traded ($2.0M in the last 24 hours) and the field resolving by November 3, 2026. Prices refresh every few minutes as trades land.

The market's call

lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats 25%

implied probability (25¢ YES) — the most-likely outcome of 100

Full market details →
1lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats25%25¢ · $124K 24h2win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas14%14¢ · $620K 24h3win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas14%14¢ · $738K 24h4win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats3%2¢ · $33K 24h5win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas—— · $15K 24h6win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas—— · $9K 24h7win Iowa and Maine, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas—— · $15K 24h8win Iowa and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas—— · $13K 24h9win Iowa, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Maine, Ohio, and Texas—— · $14K 24h10win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Ohio—— · $11K 24h11win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Michigan and Ohio—— · $9K 24h12win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Michigan—— · $5K 24h13win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Texas—— · $7K 24h14win Kansas and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio—— · $7K 24h15win Iowa and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio—— · $7K 24h16win Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas—— · $7K 24h17win Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa and Michigan—— · $4K 24h18win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Ohio—— · $8K 24h19win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Ohio—— · $7K 24h20win Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio—— · $4K 24h21win Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, and Ohio—— · $4K 24h22win Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio—— · $6K 24h23win Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Kansas, Maine, and Texas—— · $6K 24h24win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas and Michigan—— · $4K 24h25win Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Iowa—— · $4K 24h26win Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Texas—— · $6K 24h27win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Maine, Michigan, and Ohio—— · $6K 24h28win Kansas and Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas—— · $5K 24h29win Alaska, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Iowa, Ohio, and Texas—— · $5K 24h30win Maine and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio—— · $4K 24h31win Michigan and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio—— · $5K 24h32win Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, and Michigan—— · $5K 24h33win Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas—— · $4K 24h34win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Michigan, Ohio, and Texas—— · $6K 24h35win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Maine, Michigan, and Texas—— · $3K 24h36win Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa—— · $4K 24h37win Iowa and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas—— · $4K 24h38win Ohio and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan—— · $4K 24h39win Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, and lose Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas—— · $3K 24h40win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas—— · $4K 24h41win Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas—— · $3K 24h42win Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, and Michigan—— · $4K 24h43win Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Michigan—— · $5K 24h44win Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio—— · $4K 24h45win Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio—— · $3K 24h46win Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Iowa, Kansas, and Texas—— · $3K 24h47win Alaska, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Kansas, and Michigan—— · $5K 24h48win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas—— · $5K 24h49win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Ohio and Texas—— · $3K 24h50win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan—— · $4K 24h51win Alaska and Iowa, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas—— · $4K 24h52win Iowa, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio—— · $4K 24h53win Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Texas—— · $2K 24h54win Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa and Kansas—— · $4K 24h55win Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Maine—— · $4K 24h56win Alaska, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas—— · $4K 24h57win Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa and Maine—— · $4K 24h58win Alaska and Texas, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio—— · $4K 24h59win Alaska, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas—— · $4K 24h60win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine and Michigan—— · $4K 24h61win Alaska, Iowa, and Michigan, and lose Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas—— · $4K 24h62win Alaska, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas—— · $4K 24h63win Iowa, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas—— · $3K 24h64win Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Kansas—— · $4K 24h65win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, and lose Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio—— · $4K 24h66win Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas, Maine, and Michigan—— · $4K 24h67win Alaska, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan—— · $3K 24h68win Alaska, Iowa, and Texas, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio—— · $3K 24h69win Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio—— · $4K 24h70win Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, and Texas—— · $4K 24h71win Alaska, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio—— · $4K 24h72win Iowa, Maine, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio—— · $2K 24h73win Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Iowa and Ohio—— · $3K 24h74win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska—— · $2K 24h75win Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Iowa and Texas—— · $3K 24h76win Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Texas—— · $4K 24h77win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Kansas and Texas—— · $3K 24h78win Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Maine, and Ohio—— · $3K 24h79win Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas and Maine—— · $3K 24h80win Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, and Texas—— · $3K 24h81win Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, and Maine—— · $3K 24h82win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Kansas, Ohio, and Texas—— · $3K 24h83win Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Michigan—— · $3K 24h84win Alaska, Maine, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio—— · $3K 24h85win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Maine and Texas—— · $3K 24h86win Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas—— · $3K 24h87win Iowa, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas—— · $3K 24h88win Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, and Texas—— · $3K 24h89win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine—— · $3K 24h90win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Kansas, Michigan, and Texas—— · $3K 24h91win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Texas—— · $3K 24h92win Kansas, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas—— · $3K 24h93win Alaska, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio—— · $3K 24h94win Michigan and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas—— · $3K 24h95win Kansas, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Ohio—— · $3K 24h96win Maine and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas—— · $3K 24h97win Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas—— · $3K 24h98win Alaska, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Maine, and Michigan—— · $3K 24h99win Alaska, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio—— · $3K 24h100win Alaska, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Iowa, Michigan, and Texas—— · $3K 24h

About this event

Which outcome is favored for Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win??
The market currently favors lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats at 25% implied probability (YES trading at 25¢).
How much has been traded on Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win??
$2.2M has been traded across 100 outcome markets, $2.0M of it in the last 24 hours.
When do these markets resolve?
The earliest outcome market is scheduled to resolve by November 3, 2026.

Get alerts on every outcome

PolyWatch watches all 100 outcome markets 24/7 and pushes whale trades, odds swings and volume spikes the moment they land. Free on iOS and Android.

Download on the App StoreGet it on Google Play