Ebola pandemic in 2026? — live odds

"Ebola pandemic in 2026?" is trading at a 4% implied probability, with YES at 4¢ and NO at 96¢. $719K has changed hands so far, $395 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this science market in real time.

implied probability

YES 4¢NO 96¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

0¢

24h change

$395

24h volume

$719K

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±28.4¢ swing band
13d ago
Odds swing
4¢ → 99¢ (+94.7¢ in 15 min)
13d ago
High volatility
±4.9¢ swing band
22d ago
Odds swing
3¢ → 12¢ (+9.3¢ in 15 min)
22d ago
High volatility
±41.2¢ swing band
61d ago
High volatility
±41.4¢ swing band
61d ago
Odds swing
99¢ → 2¢ (-97¢ in 15 min)
61d ago
High volatility
±28.1¢ swing band
61d ago
High volatility
±18.9¢ swing band
76d ago
Odds swing
85¢ → 6¢ (-79¢ in 15 min)
76d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.