Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? — live odds

Part of What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?· see all 31 outcomes →📲 Open in app

21%

implied probability

YES 21¢NO 79¢

recent price

-2¢ over the window

-2¢

24h change

$29K

24h volume

$3.6M

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Volume spike
$1,200 traded — 27.7× the average
13m ago
High volatility
±21.8¢ swing band
16m ago
Odds swing
99¢ → 23¢ (-76¢ in 15 min)
16m ago
High volatility
±22.2¢ swing band
34m ago
Odds swing
83¢ → 99¢ (+16¢ in 15 min)
34m ago
High volatility
±24.5¢ swing band
50m ago
Odds swing
99¢ → 15¢ (-84¢ in 15 min)
50m ago
High volatility
±46.8¢ swing band
1h ago
Odds swing
15¢ → 99¢ (+84¢ in 15 min)
1h ago
High volatility
±22.5¢ swing band
2h ago

How this market resolves

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.