Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? — live odds
"Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?" is trading at a 5% implied probability, with YES at 5¢ and NO at 96¢. $4.9M has changed hands so far, $7K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this crypto market in real time.
5%
implied probability
recent price
0¢ over the window
0¢
24h change
$7K
24h volume
$4.9M
total volume
Jan 1, 2027
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 15m ago
High volatility
±31.9¢ swing band
- 31m ago
High volatility
±44¢ swing band
- 48m ago
High volatility
±31.1¢ swing band
- 1h ago
High volatility
±30.1¢ swing band
- 1h ago
conviction signal
- 1h ago
High volatility
±31.9¢ swing band
- 2h ago
High volatility
±30.8¢ swing band
- 2h ago
Odds swing
100¢ → 4¢ (-95.6¢ in 15 min)
- 2h ago
High volatility
±21.7¢ swing band
- 2h ago
High volatility
±44¢ swing band
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?"?
The market currently prices YES at 5¢ and NO at 96¢, an implied probability of 5% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
How much has been traded on this market?
$4.9M has been traded in total, $7K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
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