Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? — live odds

📲 Open in app

50%

implied probability

YES 50¢NO 50¢

recent price

-10¢ over the window

-10¢

24h change

$3K

24h volume

$4.5M

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±22.2¢ swing band
11m ago
Odds swing
90¢ → 0¢ (-89.8¢ in 15 min)
11m ago
High volatility
±20.2¢ swing band
26m ago
Odds swing
0¢ → 70¢ (+69.8¢ in 15 min)
26m ago
High volatility
±12.4¢ swing band
42m ago
Odds swing
66¢ → 6¢ (-60.3¢ in 15 min)
42m ago
High volatility
±24.5¢ swing band
57m ago
Odds swing
0¢ → 60¢ (+59.8¢ in 15 min)
57m ago
High volatility
±17.7¢ swing band
1h ago
High volatility
±20.8¢ swing band
1h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.