Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? — live odds

Part of What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?· see all 32 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?" is trading at a 71% implied probability, with YES at 71¢ and NO at 29¢. $687K has changed hands so far, $12K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this crypto market in real time.

71%

implied probability

YES 71¢NO 29¢

recent price

+18¢ over the window

+18¢

24h change

$12K

24h volume

$687K

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±7.2¢ swing band
29m ago
Odds swing
58¢ → 70¢ (+12¢ in 15 min)
29m ago
High volatility
±4.9¢ swing band
47m ago
High volatility
±7.2¢ swing band
1h ago
Odds swing
88¢ → 76¢ (-12¢ in 15 min)
1h ago
High volatility
±4.5¢ swing band
2h ago
High volatility
±4.7¢ swing band
2h ago
High volatility
±6.5¢ swing band
3h ago
High volatility
±4.9¢ swing band
3h ago
High volatility
±10.1¢ swing band
3h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.