Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? — live odds
"Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?" is trading at a 14% implied probability, with YES at 14¢ and NO at 86¢. $2.1M has changed hands so far, $14K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by October 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this sports market in real time.
14%
implied probability
recent price
-1¢ over the window
-1¢
24h change
$14K
24h volume
$2.1M
total volume
Oct 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 54d ago
complete set arb
sum: 1.031 · edge: 0.021
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?"?
The market currently prices YES at 14¢ and NO at 86¢, an implied probability of 14% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by October 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$2.1M has been traded in total, $14K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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