Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? — live odds

Part of MLS Cup Winner 2026· see all 30 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup?" is trading at a 16% implied probability, with YES at 16¢ and NO at 84¢. $326K has changed hands so far, $41 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 19, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this sports market in real time.

16%

implied probability

YES 16¢NO 84¢

recent price

-1¢ over the window

-1¢

24h change

$41

24h volume

$326K

total volume

Dec 19, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±10.5¢ swing band
18d ago
Odds swing
40¢ → 17¢ (-23¢ in 15 min)
18d ago
High volatility
±6.9¢ swing band
18d ago
Odds swing
76¢ → 33¢ (-43¢ in 15 min)
18d ago
High volatility
±26.7¢ swing band
18d ago
Odds swing
99¢ → 76¢ (-23.3¢ in 15 min)
18d ago
High volatility
±5¢ swing band
18d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.933 · edge: 0.057
74d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.907 · edge: 0.083
81d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLS Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLS Cup per the rules of MLS (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLS season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Soccer; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.