Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? — live odds

Part of Ballon d'Or Winner 2026· see all 31 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?" is trading at a 67% implied probability, with YES at 67¢ and NO at 33¢. $4.0M has changed hands so far, $37K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by October 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this sports market in real time.

67%

implied probability

YES 67¢NO 33¢

recent price

-1¢ over the window

-1¢

24h change

$37K

24h volume

$4.0M

total volume

Oct 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±6.3¢ swing band
3m ago
High volatility
±6.6¢ swing band
49m ago
Odds swing
15¢ → 65¢ (+50.2¢ in 15 min)
49m ago
High volatility
±25.9¢ swing band
1h ago
Odds swing
65¢ → 14¢ (-51.2¢ in 15 min)
1h ago
Volume spike
$292 traded — 9.4× the average
1h ago
High volatility
±25.6¢ swing band
1h ago
High volatility
±21.2¢ swing band
2h ago
High volatility
±9.2¢ swing band
3h ago
Odds swing
71¢ → 93¢ (+22.5¢ in 15 min)
3h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).