Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? — live odds

Part of Ballon d'Or Winner 2026· see all 19 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?" is trading at a 72% implied probability, with YES at 72¢ and NO at 28¢. $6.2M has changed hands so far, $137K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this sports market in real time.

72%

implied probability

YES 72¢NO 28¢

recent price

+4¢ over the window

+4¢

24h change

$137K

24h volume

$6.2M

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Volume spike
$2,440 traded — 36.9× the average
17m ago
High volatility
±4.2¢ swing band
37m ago
Odds swing
74¢ → 83¢ (+8.8¢ in 15 min)
38m ago
Volume spike
$6,858 traded — 114.6× the average
51m ago
Volume spike
$843 traded — 14.1× the average
1h ago
Volume spike
$4,514 traded — 74.5× the average
2h ago
Volume spike
$342 traded — 5.6× the average
2h ago
High volatility
±37.5¢ swing band
2h ago
Odds swing
74¢ → 0¢ (-73.7¢ in 15 min)
2h ago
Odds swing
72¢ → 0¢ (-71.4¢ in 15 min)
2h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).