Will Raphinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? — live odds
0%
implied probability
recent price
-10¢ over the window
-10¢
24h change
$108K
24h volume
$500K
total volume
Oct 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 13d ago
High volatility
±31.2¢ swing band
- 13d ago
Odds swing
77¢ → 3¢ (-73.6¢ in 15 min)
- 13d ago
High volatility
±25.9¢ swing band
- 30d ago
High volatility
±20.7¢ swing band
- 30d ago
Odds swing
95¢ → 9¢ (-86¢ in 15 min)
- 30d ago
High volatility
±24.8¢ swing band
- 33d ago
Odds swing
82¢ → 2¢ (-79.8¢ in 15 min)
- 33d ago
High volatility
±26.2¢ swing band
- 33d ago
Odds swing
82¢ → 6¢ (-76.2¢ in 15 min)
- 33d ago
High volatility
±22.5¢ swing band
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will Raphinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?"?
The market currently prices YES at 0¢ and NO at 100¢, an implied probability of 0% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by October 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$500K has been traded in total, $108K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
Get alerted when this market moves
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