TL;DR
- 🐋 $100K whale BUY on Strait of Hormuz met with strong selling pressure, price drops 95.3¢.
- Kamala Harris's 2028 election odds dropped 49.1¢ to 3.9¢ (3.9%).
- Bitcoin > $70K market sees a 206x volume spike today.
📈 The big moves
| Market | Move | Now | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | ▼ -49.1¢ | 3.9¢ (3.9%) | (not in digest) |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31? | ▲ +31.0¢ | 79¢ (79%) | (not in digest) |
| Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on August 14? | ▼ -36.0¢ | 38¢ (38%) | (not in digest) |
| Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs MOUZ (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C | ▲ +30.0¢ | 64.5¢ (64.5%) | (not in digest) |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | ▼ -35.2¢ | 4.85¢ (4.85%) | (not in digest) |
The biggest mover today saw Kamala Harris's implied probability of winning the 2028 US Presidential Election drop precipitously by 49.1¢, settling at just 3.9¢ (3.9%). This significant re-pricing highlights the volatility often seen in politics betting odds, even in long-dated markets. Understanding these rapid shifts is key to knowing how to read Polymarket.
🐋 Whale watch
A major trade hit the "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?" market, where a whale BUYed $100,000. Despite the buy volume, the market's price dropped by 95.3¢, indicating strong opposing flow that absorbed the order. This is a classic example of when to use a whale watching guide to understand market dynamics.
Elsewhere, a $31,000 BUY in the "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?" market saw prices rise by 96.9¢, with a $28,280.34 BUY in "Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August?" pushing that market up by 94.6¢.
📊 Volume spikes
Several markets experienced notable volume spikes today, indicating heightened interest and potential price action. The "Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August?" market saw volume at $5,390, 90.8x its average. Even more dramatically, the "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 15?" market spiked to $5,980, an incredible 206.0x its average.
| Market | Volume | vs average |
|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 15? | $5,980.0 | 206.0× |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? | $52.63 | 118.5× |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August? | $5,390.0 | 90.8× |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | $1,280.22 | 56.5× |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 14? | $2,000.0 | 25.8× |
These Bitcoin price markets, especially, are worth tracking with the Bitcoin price target tracker for real-time updates on crypto prediction markets.
🗓️ Resolving soon
Several political markets are set to resolve by August 15, including "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?", "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?", "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?", and "Israel closes its airspace by August 15?". Additionally, today sees the resolution of several esports matches, such as "LoL: Anyone's Legend vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend" and "Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Group Stage."
PolyWatch pushes whale trades like these the moment they land — free on iOS and Android.
