Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting? — live odds

Part of Bank of Russia decision in July?· see all 3 outcomes →📲 Open in app

59%

implied probability

YES 59¢NO 41¢

recent price

+33¢ over the window

+33¢

24h change

$32K

24h volume

$102K

total volume

Jul 24, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±4.7¢ swing band
19m ago
High volatility
±13.3¢ swing band
34m ago
Odds swing
16¢ → 64¢ (+48¢ in 15 min)
34m ago
Volume spike
$206 traded — 9.3× the average
47m ago
High volatility
±12.5¢ swing band
49m ago
Volume spike
$101 traded — 4.6× the average
1h ago
High volatility
±10.2¢ swing band
1h ago
Odds swing
19¢ → 2¢ (-17¢ in 15 min)
1h ago
High volatility
±9.3¢ swing band
1h ago
Odds swing
65¢ → 25¢ (-40¢ in 15 min)
1h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s July meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its July 24, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their July 24, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.