Fed rate hike in 2026? — live odds

📲 Open in app

66%

implied probability

YES 66¢NO 34¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

0¢

24h change

$55K

24h volume

$4.3M

total volume

Dec 9, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Odds swing
2¢ → 58¢ (+56¢ in 15 min)
6m ago
High volatility
±54.1¢ swing band
21m ago
Odds swing
66¢ → 2¢ (-64¢ in 15 min)
21m ago
Volume spike
$400 traded — 9.1× the average
33m ago
High volatility
±55.1¢ swing band
36m ago
Odds swing
66¢ → 99¢ (+33¢ in 15 min)
36m ago
High volatility
±34.7¢ swing band
51m ago
High volatility
±8.3¢ swing band
1h ago
Odds swing
66¢ → 37¢ (-29¢ in 15 min)
1h ago
Volume spike
$140 traded — 3.5× the average
1h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.