Fed rate hike in 2026? — live odds

"Fed rate hike in 2026?" is trading at a 72% implied probability, with YES at 72¢ and NO at 28¢. $8.7M has changed hands so far, $248K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 9, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this finance market in real time.

72%

implied probability

YES 72¢NO 28¢

recent price

-8¢ over the window

-8¢

24h change

$248K

24h volume

$8.7M

total volume

Dec 9, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±5.8¢ swing band
2h ago
High volatility
±4¢ swing band
2h ago
Odds swing
60¢ → 74¢ (+14¢ in 15 min)
3h ago
High volatility
±30.3¢ swing band
3h ago
Odds swing
69¢ → 79¢ (+10¢ in 15 min)
3h ago
High volatility
±5.2¢ swing band
3h ago
High volatility
±29.8¢ swing band
4h ago
Odds swing
69¢ → 77¢ (+8¢ in 15 min)
4h ago
High volatility
±4.5¢ swing band
4h ago
High volatility
±4.1¢ swing band
4h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.