
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? — live odds
"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?" is trading at a 23% implied probability, with YES at 23¢ and NO at 78¢. $680K has changed hands so far, $24K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 9, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this finance market in real time.
23%
implied probability
recent price
+1¢ over the window
+1¢
24h change
$24K
24h volume
$680K
total volume
Dec 9, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?"?
The market currently prices YES at 23¢ and NO at 78¢, an implied probability of 23% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by December 9, 2026. The stated resolution source is https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
How much has been traded on this market?
$680K has been traded in total, $24K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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