Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31? — final odds

Resolved NO · November 1, 2026Final price 1¢ YES — the market gave this a 1% implied probability.

"Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?" resolved NO on November 1, 2026 at a final price of 1¢ YES — a 1% implied probability — after $63K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

1%

implied probability

YES 1¢NO 99¢

recent price

-5¢ over the window

-5¢

24h change

$5K

24h volume

$63K

total volume

Nov 1, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for October 31, 2026. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR). A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released. Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered. If Iran redenominates the rial, or Bonbast changes the unit in which it displays the USD exchange rate, before the relevant figure has been finalized, the displayed figure will be converted into current Iranian rials at the official conversion ratio between the new unit and the current rial (for example, 1 new rial equals 10,000 current rials), and the converted figure will be used for resolution. The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.

Quick answers

How did "Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?" resolve?

This market resolved NO on November 1, 2026. Its final traded price was 1¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 1¢ — an implied probability of 1%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.

How much was traded on this market?

$63K was traded over the market's lifetime.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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