Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in October? — final odds

Resolved NO · November 1, 2026Final price 0¢ YES — the market gave this a 0% implied probability.

"Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in October?" resolved NO on November 1, 2026 at a final price of 0¢ YES — a 0% implied probability — after $68K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

0%

implied probability

YES 0¢NO 100¢

recent price

—

24h change

$5K

24h volume

$68K

total volume

Nov 1, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • High volatility

    ±4.3¢ swing band

    11d ago
  • High volatility

    ±29.5¢ swing band

    11d ago
  • Odds swing

    38¢ → 5¢ (-33.4¢ in 15 min)

    11d ago
  • High volatility

    ±6.8¢ swing band

    11d ago
  • Odds swing

    1¢ → 12¢ (+11¢ in 15 min)

    11d ago
  • High volatility

    ±19.5¢ swing band

    11d ago
  • Odds swing

    100¢ → 0¢ (-99.7¢ in 15 min)

    11d ago
  • High volatility

    ±33.1¢ swing band

    11d ago
  • Odds swing

    50¢ → 68¢ (+18¢ in 15 min)

    11d ago
  • High volatility

    ±15.3¢ swing band

    11d ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of October 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

Quick answers

How did "Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in October?" resolve?

This market resolved NO on November 1, 2026. Its final traded price was 0¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 0¢ — an implied probability of 0%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.

How much was traded on this market?

$68K was traded over the market's lifetime.

Get alerted when this market moves

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