Which outcome is favored for Next Prime Minister of New Zealand??

The market currently favors Christopher Luxon at 80% implied probability (YES trading at 80¢).

How much has been traded on Next Prime Minister of New Zealand??

$317K has been traded across 7 outcome markets, $85K of it in the last 24 hours.

When do these markets resolve?

The earliest outcome market is scheduled to resolve by November 8, 2026.

Event odds table

Next Prime Minister of New Zealand? — live odds

7 outcomes$317K traded$85K · 24hresolves by November 8, 2026

Live Next Prime Minister of New Zealand? odds: Christopher Luxon leads the field at 80% implied probability, ahead of Chris Hipkins (13%) and Nicola Willis (12%). All 7 outcome markets are ranked below by the odds real money is pricing, with $317K traded ($85K in the last 24 hours) and the field resolving by November 8, 2026. Prices refresh every few minutes as trades land.

The market's call

Christopher Luxon 80%

implied probability (80¢ YES) — the most-likely outcome of 7

Full market details →

1Christopher Luxon

80%80¢ · $50K 24h 2Chris Hipkins

13%13¢ · $32K 24h 3Nicola Willis

12%12¢ · — 24h 4Winston Peters

4%4¢ · $1K 24h 5Chlöe Swarbrick

4%4¢ · — 24h 6Carmel Sepuloni

2%2¢ · — 24h 7David Seymour

0%0¢ · $3K 24h

About this event

Which outcome is favored for Next Prime Minister of New Zealand??: The market currently favors Christopher Luxon at 80% implied probability (YES trading at 80¢).
How much has been traded on Next Prime Minister of New Zealand??: $317K has been traded across 7 outcome markets, $85K of it in the last 24 hours.
When do these markets resolve?: The earliest outcome market is scheduled to resolve by November 8, 2026.

Get alerts on every outcome

PolyWatch watches all 7 outcome markets 24/7 and pushes whale trades, odds swings and volume spikes the moment they land. Free on iOS and Android.