Will Carmel Sepuloni be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections? — live odds
"Will Carmel Sepuloni be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?" is trading at a 2% implied probability, with YES at 2¢ and NO at 98¢. $17K has changed hands so far, and the market is scheduled to resolve by November 8, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.
2%
implied probability
recent price
-6¢ over the window
-6¢
24h change
—
24h volume
$17K
total volume
Nov 8, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will Carmel Sepuloni be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?"?
The market currently prices YES at 2¢ and NO at 98¢, an implied probability of 2% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by November 8, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$17K has been traded in total, — of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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