Event odds table
Who will Trump publicly insult by July 31? — live odds
8 outcomes$887K traded$735K · 24hresolves by July 31, 2026
The market's call
Xi Jinping 69%
implied probability (69¢ YES) — the most-likely outcome of 8
1Xi Jinping
69%69¢ · $197 24h2Benjamin Netanyahu
6%6¢ · $548 24h3Vladimir Putin
2%2¢ · $726K 24h4Kevin Warsh
—— · $1K 24h5Tucker Carlson
—— · $4K 24h6Emmanuel Macron
—— · $3K 24h7Melania Trump
—— · $1K 24h8Mohammed bin Salman
—— · $462 24h
About this event
- Which outcome is favored for Who will Trump publicly insult by July 31??
- The market currently favors "Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by July 31, 2026?" at 69% implied probability (YES trading at 69¢).
- How much has been traded on Who will Trump publicly insult by July 31??
- $887K has been traded across 8 outcome markets, $735K of it in the last 24 hours.
- When do these markets resolve?
- The earliest outcome market is scheduled to resolve by July 31, 2026.
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