Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by July 31, 2026? — live odds

Part of Who will Trump publicly insult by July 31?· see all 8 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by July 31, 2026?" is trading at a 69% implied probability, with YES at 69¢ and NO at 31¢. $7K has changed hands so far, $898 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by July 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

69%

implied probability

YES 69¢NO 31¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

0¢

24h change

$898

24h volume

$7K

total volume

Jul 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

conviction signal
29d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.