Another Fed rate hike in 2026? — live odds

"Another Fed rate hike in 2026?" is trading at a 77% implied probability, with YES at 77¢ and NO at 24¢. $643K has changed hands so far, $33K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 10, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this finance market in real time.

77%

implied probability

YES 77¢NO 24¢

recent price

+4¢ over the window

+4¢

24h change

$33K

24h volume

$643K

total volume

Dec 10, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Another Fed rate hike in 2026?"?

The market currently prices YES at 77¢ and NO at 24¢, an implied probability of 77% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by December 10, 2026. The stated resolution source is https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.