
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? — live odds
"Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?" is trading at a 11% implied probability, with YES at 11¢ and NO at 90¢. $1.1M has changed hands so far, $21K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this finance market in real time.
11%
implied probability
recent price
-8¢ over the window
-8¢
24h change
$21K
24h volume
$1.1M
total volume
Dec 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 42d ago
High volatility
±26.6¢ swing band
- 42d ago
Odds swing
49¢ → 90¢ (+41¢ in 15 min)
- 42d ago
High volatility
±23.8¢ swing band
- 42d ago
Odds swing
90¢ → 78¢ (-12¢ in 15 min)
- 42d ago
High volatility
±12.4¢ swing band
- 42d ago
Odds swing
78¢ → 67¢ (-11¢ in 15 min)
- 62d ago
High volatility
±22.9¢ swing band
- 62d ago
Odds swing
54¢ → 75¢ (+21¢ in 15 min)
- 62d ago
High volatility
±28.2¢ swing band
- 62d ago
Odds swing
1¢ → 97¢ (+96¢ in 15 min)
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?"?
The market currently prices YES at 11¢ and NO at 90¢, an implied probability of 11% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$1.1M has been traded in total, $21K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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