Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 30? — live odds

Part of Bitcoin above ___ on October 30?· see all 10 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 30?" is trading at a 45% implied probability, with YES at 45¢ and NO at 56¢. $117K has changed hands so far, $98K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by October 30, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this crypto market in real time.

45%

implied probability

YES 45¢NO 56¢

recent price

+6¢ over the window

+6¢

24h change

$98K

24h volume

$117K

total volume

Oct 30, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Volume spike
$200 traded — 6.2× the average
5m ago
High volatility
±19¢ swing band
15m ago
Odds swing
45¢ → 22¢ (-23.3¢ in 15 min)
15m ago
High volatility
±16.6¢ swing band
30m ago
Odds swing
69¢ → 85¢ (+16¢ in 15 min)
30m ago
High volatility
±11.8¢ swing band
45m ago
High volatility
±31.9¢ swing band
1h ago
Odds swing
70¢ → 33¢ (-36.1¢ in 15 min)
1h ago
Volume spike
$961 traded — 27.9× the average
1h ago
Volume spike
$125 traded — 3.5× the average
1h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.