Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 4? — live odds

Part of Bitcoin above ___ on September 4?· see all 8 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 4?" is trading at a 61% implied probability, with YES at 61¢ and NO at 40¢. $19K has changed hands so far, $9K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by September 4, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this crypto market in real time.

61%

implied probability

YES 61¢NO 40¢

recent price

+37¢ over the window

+37¢

24h change

$9K

24h volume

$19K

total volume

Sep 4, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±31.7¢ swing band
36m ago
Odds swing
57¢ → 90¢ (+33¢ in 15 min)
36m ago
High volatility
±51.3¢ swing band
51m ago
Odds swing
69¢ → 58¢ (-11¢ in 15 min)
51m ago
Volume spike
$1,000 traded — 59.8× the average
1h ago
High volatility
±47¢ swing band
1h ago
conviction signal
1h ago
Odds swing
52¢ → 61¢ (+9¢ in 15 min)
2h ago
High volatility
±27.2¢ swing band
2h ago
Odds swing
98¢ → 59¢ (-39¢ in 15 min)
2h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.