Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 15? — final odds

Resolved YES · September 15, 2026Final price 95¢ YES — the market gave this a 95% implied probability.

"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 15?" resolved YES on September 15, 2026 at a final price of 95¢ YES — a 95% implied probability — after $242K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

95%

implied probability

YES 95¢NO 5¢

recent price

—

24h change

$216K

24h volume

$242K

total volume

Sep 15, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Spread blowout
spread 1¢ vs 0.0029¢ normal
1h ago
High volatility
±17.2¢ swing band
1h ago
Volume spike
$1,000 traded — 10.3× the average
1h ago
High volatility
±28¢ swing band
2h ago
Odds swing
47¢ → 3¢ (-43.9¢ in 15 min)
2h ago
Volume spike
$5,005 traded — 48.8× the average
2h ago
Volume spike
$500 traded — 4.9× the average
2h ago
Volume spike
$1,000 traded — 9.7× the average
2h ago
conviction signal
2h ago
High volatility
±11.1¢ swing band
2h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Quick answers

How did "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 15?" resolve?

This market resolved YES on September 15, 2026. Its final traded price was 95¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 95¢ — an implied probability of 95%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.