Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 15? — live odds

Part of Bitcoin above ___ on October 15?· see all 11 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 15?" is trading at a 0% implied probability, with YES at 0¢ and NO at 100¢. $174K has changed hands so far, $145K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by October 15, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this crypto market in real time.

implied probability

YES 0¢NO 100¢

recent price

+95¢ over the window

+95¢

24h change

$145K

24h volume

$174K

total volume

Oct 15, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±37.1¢ swing band
1m ago
Odds swing
0¢ → 25¢ (+24.9¢ in 15 min)
2m ago
High volatility
±12¢ swing band
17m ago
Odds swing
2¢ → 41¢ (+38.8¢ in 15 min)
17m ago
conviction signal
34m ago
High volatility
±29.2¢ swing band
34m ago
Odds swing
100¢ → 2¢ (-97.7¢ in 15 min)
34m ago
Volume spike
$10,000 traded — 143× the average
41m ago
Volume spike
$293 traded — 4.2× the average
52m ago
High volatility
±23.9¢ swing band
52m ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.