Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 16? — live odds

Part of Bitcoin above ___ on October 16?· see all 11 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 16?" is trading at a 2% implied probability, with YES at 2¢ and NO at 98¢. $100K has changed hands so far, $54K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by October 16, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this crypto market in real time.

implied probability

YES 2¢NO 98¢

recent price

-1¢ over the window

-1¢

24h change

$54K

24h volume

$100K

total volume

Oct 16, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Odds swing
33¢ → 2¢ (-31¢ in 15 min)
18m ago
High volatility
±15.5¢ swing band
48m ago
Odds swing
2¢ → 57¢ (+54.7¢ in 15 min)
48m ago
High volatility
±27¢ swing band
1h ago
High volatility
±30.1¢ swing band
2h ago
High volatility
±38.8¢ swing band
3h ago
Odds swing
2¢ → 93¢ (+90.8¢ in 15 min)
3h ago
Volume spike
$421 traded — 31.3× the average
3h ago
Volume spike
$300 traded — 22.3× the average
3h ago
Volume spike
$292 traded — 21.7× the average
3h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.