Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 3PM ET — final odds

This market has ended · August 9, 2026Final price 47¢ YES — the market gave this a 47% implied probability.

"Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 3PM ET" resolved on August 9, 2026 at a final price of 47¢ YES — a 47% implied probability — after $14K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

47%

implied probability

YES 47¢NO 54¢

recent price

-4¢ over the window

-4¢

24h change

$14K

24h volume

$14K

total volume

Aug 9, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±13.8¢ swing band
1d ago
Odds swing
99¢ → 44¢ (-55¢ in 15 min)
1d ago
High volatility
±29.3¢ swing band
1d ago
Odds swing
1¢ → 15¢ (+14¢ in 15 min)
1d ago
High volatility
±12.6¢ swing band
1d ago
Odds swing
36¢ → 45¢ (+9¢ in 15 min)
1d ago
conviction signal
1d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Quick answers

How did "Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 3PM ET" resolve?

This market ended on August 9, 2026 with a final traded price of 47¢ YES (47% implied probability).

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 47¢ — an implied probability of 47%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.