Bitcoin Up or Down on August 1? — final odds

Resolved YES · August 1, 2026Final price 100¢ YES — the market gave this a 100% implied probability.

"Bitcoin Up or Down on August 1?" resolved YES on August 1, 2026 at a final price of 100¢ YES — a 100% implied probability — after $241K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

100%

implied probability

YES 100¢NO 0¢

recent price

-16¢ over the window

-16¢

24h change

$240K

24h volume

$241K

total volume

Aug 1, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±65.4¢ swing band
7h ago
Odds swing
100¢ → 0¢ (-99.4¢ in 15 min)
7h ago
Volume spike
$716 traded — 8× the average
8h ago
Volume spike
$500 traded — 5.6× the average
8h ago
Volume spike
$3,546 traded — 39.4× the average
8h ago
Volume spike
$2,000 traded — 22.2× the average
8h ago
Volume spike
$825 traded — 8.9× the average
8h ago
High volatility
±4.6¢ swing band
9h ago
Odds swing
97¢ → 87¢ (-10.4¢ in 15 min)
9h ago
Odds swing
82¢ → 96¢ (+14¢ in 15 min)
10h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 31 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 1 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 31 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 1 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Quick answers

How did "Bitcoin Up or Down on August 1?" resolve?

This market resolved YES on August 1, 2026. Its final traded price was 100¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 100¢ — an implied probability of 100%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.