Bitcoin Up or Down on August 14? — final odds

Resolved NO · August 14, 2026Final price 1¢ YES — the market gave this a 1% implied probability.

"Bitcoin Up or Down on August 14?" resolved NO on August 14, 2026 at a final price of 1¢ YES — a 1% implied probability — after $215K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

implied probability

YES 1¢NO 99¢

recent price

—

24h change

$214K

24h volume

$215K

total volume

Aug 14, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Spread blowout
spread 1¢ vs 0.0082¢ normal
2h ago
High volatility
±39.4¢ swing band
2h ago
High volatility
±11.6¢ swing band
2h ago
High volatility
±6.3¢ swing band
3h ago
conviction signal
3h ago
High volatility
±16¢ swing band
6h ago
High volatility
±26.2¢ swing band
7h ago
High volatility
±37¢ swing band
8h ago
High volatility
±21.8¢ swing band
9h ago
High volatility
±4.4¢ swing band
9h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 13 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 14 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 13 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 14 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Quick answers

How did "Bitcoin Up or Down on August 14?" resolve?

This market resolved NO on August 14, 2026. Its final traded price was 1¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 1¢ — an implied probability of 1%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.