Bitcoin Up or Down on August 15? — live odds

"Bitcoin Up or Down on August 15?" is trading at a 46% implied probability, with YES at 46¢ and NO at 55¢. $113K has changed hands so far, $113K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by August 15, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this crypto market in real time.

46%

implied probability

YES 46¢NO 55¢

recent price

-7¢ over the window

-7¢

24h change

$113K

24h volume

$113K

total volume

Aug 15, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±19.2¢ swing band
2m ago
Odds swing
39¢ → 4¢ (-35¢ in 15 min)
2m ago
High volatility
±6¢ swing band
17m ago
Odds swing
12¢ → 40¢ (+28¢ in 15 min)
17m ago
High volatility
±6.8¢ swing band
32m ago
Odds swing
43¢ → 53¢ (+10¢ in 15 min)
32m ago
High volatility
±4.6¢ swing band
47m ago
High volatility
±4.9¢ swing band
1h ago
High volatility
±19.8¢ swing band
1h ago
Odds swing
43¢ → 79¢ (+36¢ in 15 min)
1h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 14 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 15 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 14 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 15 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.