Bitcoin Up or Down on August 18? — final odds

Resolved YES · August 18, 2026Final price 99¢ YES — the market gave this a 99% implied probability.

"Bitcoin Up or Down on August 18?" resolved YES on August 18, 2026 at a final price of 99¢ YES — a 99% implied probability — after $341K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

99%

implied probability

YES 99¢NO 1¢

recent price

—

24h change

$341K

24h volume

$341K

total volume

Aug 18, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Spread blowout
spread 1¢ vs 0.0104¢ normal
2h ago
High volatility
±38.3¢ swing band
2h ago
Odds swing
22¢ → 100¢ (+77.9¢ in 15 min)
3h ago
High volatility
±16.1¢ swing band
4h ago
High volatility
±9.8¢ swing band
4h ago
Odds swing
62¢ → 84¢ (+22¢ in 15 min)
4h ago
High volatility
±10.5¢ swing band
4h ago
Spread blowout
spread 0.06¢ vs 0.017¢ normal
4h ago
High volatility
±6.1¢ swing band
4h ago
High volatility
±4.7¢ swing band
5h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 17 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 18 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 17 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 18 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Quick answers

How did "Bitcoin Up or Down on August 18?" resolve?

This market resolved YES on August 18, 2026. Its final traded price was 99¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 99¢ — an implied probability of 99%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.