Bitcoin Up or Down on August 2? — final odds

This market has ended · August 2, 2026Final price 50¢ YES — the market gave this a 50% implied probability.

"Bitcoin Up or Down on August 2?" resolved on August 2, 2026 at a final price of 50¢ YES — a 50% implied probability — after $209K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

50%

implied probability

YES 50¢NO 50¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

0¢

24h change

$207K

24h volume

$209K

total volume

Aug 2, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Odds swing
57¢ → 99¢ (+42.1¢ in 15 min)
2h ago
Volume spike
$599 traded — 8.5× the average
2h ago
Volume spike
$3,383 traded — 47.9× the average
2h ago
High volatility
±5¢ swing band
2h ago
High volatility
±6.3¢ swing band
3h ago
High volatility
±9.8¢ swing band
3h ago
Odds swing
76¢ → 87¢ (+11¢ in 15 min)
3h ago
High volatility
±7.6¢ swing band
3h ago
Odds swing
94¢ → 64¢ (-30¢ in 15 min)
3h ago
High volatility
±29.5¢ swing band
4h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 1 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 2 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 1 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 2 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Quick answers

How did "Bitcoin Up or Down on August 2?" resolve?

This market ended on August 2, 2026 with a final traded price of 50¢ YES (50% implied probability).

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 50¢ — an implied probability of 50%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.