Bitcoin Up or Down on August 26? — final odds

This market has ended · August 26, 2026Final price 80¢ YES — the market gave this a 80% implied probability.

"Bitcoin Up or Down on August 26?" resolved on August 26, 2026 at a final price of 80¢ YES — a 80% implied probability — after $203K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

80%

implied probability

YES 80¢NO 20¢

recent price

—

24h change

$202K

24h volume

$203K

total volume

Aug 26, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Spread blowout
spread 1¢ vs 0.0079¢ normal
1h ago
High volatility
±29.1¢ swing band
1h ago
High volatility
±40.6¢ swing band
2h ago
Odds swing
1¢ → 92¢ (+90.9¢ in 15 min)
2h ago
Volume spike
$1,000 traded — 12.4× the average
2h ago
Volume spike
$1,860 traded — 23.1× the average
2h ago
Volume spike
$935 traded — 11.6× the average
2h ago
Volume spike
$862 traded — 10.7× the average
2h ago
High volatility
±13.3¢ swing band
2h ago
Volume spike
$500 traded — 6.2× the average
2h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 25 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 26 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 25 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 26 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Quick answers

How did "Bitcoin Up or Down on August 26?" resolve?

This market ended on August 26, 2026 with a final traded price of 80¢ YES (80% implied probability).

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 80¢ — an implied probability of 80%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.