Bitcoin Up or Down on August 7? — live odds

"Bitcoin Up or Down on August 7?" is trading at a 80% implied probability, with YES at 80¢ and NO at 20¢. $188K has changed hands so far, $188K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by August 7, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this crypto market in real time.

80%

implied probability

YES 80¢NO 20¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

0¢

24h change

$188K

24h volume

$188K

total volume

Aug 7, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±18.8¢ swing band
3m ago
Volume spike
$418 traded — 5.2× the average
8m ago
Volume spike
$302 traded — 4× the average
19m ago
High volatility
±11.7¢ swing band
48m ago
High volatility
±9¢ swing band
1h ago
Volume spike
$727 traded — 11.7× the average
1h ago
Volume spike
$2,344 traded — 37.8× the average
1h ago
High volatility
±10.4¢ swing band
2h ago
Volume spike
$316 traded — 5.1× the average
2h ago
High volatility
±8.3¢ swing band
2h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 6 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 7 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 6 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 7 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.